Comments: Facebook after the collapse is still overestimated

Investor and its tangle repeatedly Facebook in the past week continue to occur all kinds of things, not as straight to the point raised this issue - it is worth what? Unfortunately, it seems that not many people thought of it.Ritter, finance professor at the University of Florida (Jay Ritter), and several other experts found that these enterprises are listed in 1996-2010, the average in terms of revenue growth five years after the IPO of 212%. We assume that Facebook has reached such a level, then their revenue will grow to $ 3.7 billion in the last year to $ 11.5 billion.Since we often comparable to the Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOG), then we might assume that the social networking giant's sales ratio after five years and today's Google, that is 5.51 1. To this logic, Facebook five years later, the market value of $ 63.8 billion - 30 percent lower than it is now.If the total amount of their stock to remain stable, then when their share price is $ 23.26, down from last Thursday's $ 29.6.However, in practice the situation is even worse. If we are able to determine Facebook's stock price will be lower than it is now third, then who knows better than to buy? Therefore, in order to attract investors, Facebook must provide a very nice return to the job. Let us assume that their five-year stock average annual return of 11% of the market's long-term average, then five years after the stock thrust reversers, Facebook, the current price should be $ 13.80.How do not like this answer? Well, we can focus on profit, revenue put it aside, but even so, our conclusion is similar. We assume that the company's profit margins will remain unchanged, not like other companies, accompanied by their own growth and continue to reduce, re-assume their earnings after five years and Google, and assuming that the next five years the average annual return of the stock rate of 11%, then, Facebook, today's a reasonable price should be $ 16.66.So, the holders of Facebook stock investors how to get rid of this tragic fate? The answer is, only one hope, and expect their revenue and profit growth rate of the IPO than it was in 1996 to 2010 average - not higher, but many, many higher.Of course, we can not rule out the possibility of Facebook conjure tricks.However, as Professor Li Te earlier this week said to me: "enterprise becomes larger the more difficult to maintain the same percentage growth rate." Facebook is now actually a lot in the U.S. listed companies greater than their total of only four 17.In other words, the calculation of those I have stated before is much too pessimistic, as it is too optimistic.