After
four days of trading, whether it has been fishing a short body, or
emotional retail investors, the capital of Facebook, part of the
fanatical "players" temporary leave.
EDT
May 23 afternoon, after the first two full trading day straight
Decline, Facebook's share price finally stabilized consolidation, to
close at $ 32. The all-day price volatility is not large, the basic consolidation in the vicinity of $ 31.
The day news broke retail investors against Facebook and several major underwriters not to stock heavy suppress. Worrying but other data. According
to official statistics of the Nasdaq, until after the close of trading
in the afternoon of 23 Eastern, the date of Facebook stock volume of
about 73.21 million lots, 72% in the previous day, 43 percent Monday,
the first trading day (5.79 billion hands) 10%.
"Obviously,
many investors have to leave." Hedge fund Karya Capital Management,
Risk Management Ming Yan, told this reporter: "short bodies have less
short short-term profitability of the retail investors are able to sell
the morning to sell. "
As also Xiao, also lost. Zuckerberg
and its Chief Financial Officer David Eberhart Klinsmann had bent to
increase the IPO shares, an unprecedented expansion of the proportion of
retail investors and the stock market valuation of the highest
interval, but to become a flaw.
Capital,
Investment is Advisors, Chief Investment Officer Matt Reiner, told this
reporter: "We have many lessons can be obtain from the single-IPO rush
to sell stock is not no confidence in the IPO, just a lot of retail
investors to subscribe to the IPO stage stock, then the market is not so much demand. "
Yale
University finance professor Zhiwu said in the interview with this
reporter: "Facebook has committed an error, many Chinese enterprises,
too much focus on the IPO price.
It is time to buy
23, the third day of the full transaction, Facebook's share price gradually into calm. Stock to $ 30 up and down, this is the current valuation of the stocks off the assembly line. "Ming, Yan said.
The stock has been the support of most analysts. The statistics of the day, the Nasdaq, 10 analysts by 6 "buy" recommendations, a "hold", the other three proposals to "sell". "Sell" recommendations, expected minimum value of the stock recently still in the 25-28 dollars, not too low.
A few days ago the active trader died down. In addition to retail investors or sell in a timely manner, or "stuck", short bodies arbitrage decreases.
Data
analyst Data Explorers, the report pointed out that as of May 22, about
18 million of Facebook's stock was lent to finance short, this is
equivalent to the Facebook public offering of 421 million shares of
4.3%.
The data indicate that the market, how many short sellers. In
a short transactions, short, generally through the borrowed stock to
sell at a lower price to buy another, and then returned to the same
number of shares, in order to make the difference.
Ming
Yan, said that this proportion is not high, most short sellers dropping
$ 42 to $ 38 the first day and $ 38 thereafter dropping to $ 30 trading
days, you should have completed the short action.
"Even till now, it should be time to buy." Matt Reiner, said. This will also provide a lot of support today's stock price.
The underwriters have previously invested heavily in "bailout" are analysts believe that the action of the low margin call. From Needham & Co. ,
An analyst said publicly that the underwriters sell too much stock in
the IPO, so they technically can be short, and cover their short
positions to lock in profits in today's price, but also can no longer
decline in the support level near $ 30.
"I also this week, a stock dropping to buy Facebook stock." Tudou co-founder Marc van der Chijs told this reporter.
Institutional investors to sell
This single world's largest Internet company IPO, such a dramatic scene, I am afraid few people predict.
The
case of the first day of trading day less than originally anticipated
the excitement of a lot. "Marc van der Chijs said," In my opinion the
main reason is institutional investors got too many shares. In general,
the over-subscription the
IPO investors to subscribe for 100 shares, and finally they will get
100,000 shares, but this time, many agencies have got more than 80% of
the shares they subscribed, so selling is not surprising that as soon as
possible after the opening. "
23
retail investors to submit to the court complaint said that after a few
of underwriter analyst lowered Facebook future income is expected to
issue not timely disclosed to all investors, institutional investors,
part of their value known, thus creating the first day of trading of institutional investors to sell.
Said
Chen Zhiwu, which may violate the fairness of the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) disclosure (Fair Disclosure) Rules: disclosure
of information must be announced to the entire market, rather than some
big clients.
Last
Friday, Facebook, listed on the first day of Nasdaq's technical
malfunctions delayed for half an hour, many investors buy their own
final price is unknown so. 30 seconds after the start of trading, the stock price along the way rose to $ 42.05, and thereafter once fell into decline.
Thereafter,
Morgan Stanley was forced to use the emergency reserve of about 6300
million to promote the Facebook rose to and maintained at a price of $
38, making Facebook will not in the first day of break.
Retail demand is too early to get to meet
Retail
investors is a greater source of the problem, which might explain the
second, the third day all the way down the stock price.
Facebook
decided to underwriters of the final stage, two individual investors,
brokers Etrade and Schwab suddenly appeared on the list. Matt
Reiner, said: "This shows that Facebook wants to close to the idea of
retail investors, one reason may be that they want to be listed
tradable shares to mention increasing market demand."
ETrade
on the retail investors only need to answer 25 on its financial
position, and then at least 50 share of Facebook stock quotes, and they
are willing to bid the highest value, and can become a booking
subscribers.
ETrade and Schwab declined to say Facebook offers to their specific number of shares. According to analyst estimates, the shares available to retail investors account for about 25%. Under
normal circumstances, a stock in the IPO left to individual investors
subscribe for shares in the 10% -20% range, or even less.
Counterproductive. Matt
Reiner, think, earlier this week data showed an increase retail
investors just weaken the market after the IPO for the stock point above
the issue price after the stock price short-term rise in all the way
down.
Yan Ming, retail investors are not very rational, herd mentality and short-term held power. Facts have proved that, shortly after the market opened, sold for tens of millions of instructions, showing investors' unease.
Matt
Reiner, said: "in the company prior to listing the financing stage,
Facebook, the reason why stay a long time do not hurry the IPO, because
they need to raise funds to grow their preparation for the open market
is clearly insufficient."
Next, shares how to walk, is the true test of Facebook. "How
to proceed in the price of about $ 30, depending on whether there is a
real entity funds to buy." Ming, Yan said, "investigated the fundamental
reason is that Facebook itself, the growth is expected to be
convincing."
Facebook, the historical price-earnings ratio of over 100 in accordance with the prices of $ 38,. Under $ 30, then about 82. This data in the Google IPO is 74.6.
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