2012年6月3日星期日

Who in a short Facebook: part of the capital the player to temporarily leave the

After four days of trading, whether it has been fishing a short body, or emotional retail investors, the capital of Facebook, part of the fanatical "players" temporary leave.
EDT May 23 afternoon, after the first two full trading day straight Decline, Facebook's share price finally stabilized consolidation, to close at $ 32. The all-day price volatility is not large, the basic consolidation in the vicinity of $ 31.
The day news broke retail investors against Facebook and several major underwriters not to stock heavy suppress. Worrying but other data. According to official statistics of the Nasdaq, until after the close of trading in the afternoon of 23 Eastern, the date of Facebook stock volume of about 73.21 million lots, 72% in the previous day, 43 percent Monday, the first trading day (5.79 billion hands) 10%.
"Obviously, many investors have to leave." Hedge fund Karya Capital Management, Risk Management Ming Yan, told this reporter: "short bodies have less short short-term profitability of the retail investors are able to sell the morning to sell. "
As also Xiao, also lost. Zuckerberg and its Chief Financial Officer David Eberhart Klinsmann had bent to increase the IPO shares, an unprecedented expansion of the proportion of retail investors and the stock market valuation of the highest interval, but to become a flaw.
Capital, Investment is Advisors, Chief Investment Officer Matt Reiner, told this reporter: "We have many lessons can be obtain from the single-IPO rush to sell stock is not no confidence in the IPO, just a lot of retail investors to subscribe to the IPO stage stock, then the market is not so much demand. "
Yale University finance professor Zhiwu said in the interview with this reporter: "Facebook has committed an error, many Chinese enterprises, too much focus on the IPO price.
It is time to buy
23, the third day of the full transaction, Facebook's share price gradually into calm. Stock to $ 30 up and down, this is the current valuation of the stocks off the assembly line. "Ming, Yan said.
The stock has been the support of most analysts. The statistics of the day, the Nasdaq, 10 analysts by 6 "buy" recommendations, a "hold", the other three proposals to "sell". "Sell" recommendations, expected minimum value of the stock recently still in the 25-28 dollars, not too low.
A few days ago the active trader died down. In addition to retail investors or sell in a timely manner, or "stuck", short bodies arbitrage decreases.
Data analyst Data Explorers, the report pointed out that as of May 22, about 18 million of Facebook's stock was lent to finance short, this is equivalent to the Facebook public offering of 421 million shares of 4.3%.
The data indicate that the market, how many short sellers. In a short transactions, short, generally through the borrowed stock to sell at a lower price to buy another, and then returned to the same number of shares, in order to make the difference.
Ming Yan, said that this proportion is not high, most short sellers dropping $ 42 to $ 38 the first day and $ 38 thereafter dropping to $ 30 trading days, you should have completed the short action.
"Even till now, it should be time to buy." Matt Reiner, said. This will also provide a lot of support today's stock price.
The underwriters have previously invested heavily in "bailout" are analysts believe that the action of the low margin call. From Needham & Co. , An analyst said publicly that the underwriters sell too much stock in the IPO, so they technically can be short, and cover their short positions to lock in profits in today's price, but also can no longer decline in the support level near $ 30.
"I also this week, a stock dropping to buy Facebook stock." Tudou co-founder Marc van der Chijs told this reporter.
Institutional investors to sell
This single world's largest Internet company IPO, such a dramatic scene, I am afraid few people predict.
The case of the first day of trading day less than originally anticipated the excitement of a lot. "Marc van der Chijs said," In my opinion the main reason is institutional investors got too many shares. In general, the over-subscription the IPO investors to subscribe for 100 shares, and finally they will get 100,000 shares, but this time, many agencies have got more than 80% of the shares they subscribed, so selling is not surprising that as soon as possible after the opening. "
23 retail investors to submit to the court complaint said that after a few of underwriter analyst lowered Facebook future income is expected to issue not timely disclosed to all investors, institutional investors, part of their value known, thus creating the first day of trading of institutional investors to sell.
Said Chen Zhiwu, which may violate the fairness of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) disclosure (Fair Disclosure) Rules: disclosure of information must be announced to the entire market, rather than some big clients.
Last Friday, Facebook, listed on the first day of Nasdaq's technical malfunctions delayed for half an hour, many investors buy their own final price is unknown so. 30 seconds after the start of trading, the stock price along the way rose to $ 42.05, and thereafter once fell into decline.
Thereafter, Morgan Stanley was forced to use the emergency reserve of about 6300 million to promote the Facebook rose to and maintained at a price of $ 38, making Facebook will not in the first day of break.
Retail demand is too early to get to meet
Retail investors is a greater source of the problem, which might explain the second, the third day all the way down the stock price.
Facebook decided to underwriters of the final stage, two individual investors, brokers Etrade and Schwab suddenly appeared on the list. Matt Reiner, said: "This shows that Facebook wants to close to the idea of ​​retail investors, one reason may be that they want to be listed tradable shares to mention increasing market demand."
ETrade on the retail investors only need to answer 25 on its financial position, and then at least 50 share of Facebook stock quotes, and they are willing to bid the highest value, and can become a booking subscribers.
ETrade and Schwab declined to say Facebook offers to their specific number of shares. According to analyst estimates, the shares available to retail investors account for about 25%. Under normal circumstances, a stock in the IPO left to individual investors subscribe for shares in the 10% -20% range, or even less.
Counterproductive. Matt Reiner, think, earlier this week data showed an increase retail investors just weaken the market after the IPO for the stock point above the issue price after the stock price short-term rise in all the way down.
Yan Ming, retail investors are not very rational, herd mentality and short-term held power. Facts have proved that, shortly after the market opened, sold for tens of millions of instructions, showing investors' unease.
Matt Reiner, said: "in the company prior to listing the financing stage, Facebook, the reason why stay a long time do not hurry the IPO, because they need to raise funds to grow their preparation for the open market is clearly insufficient."
Next, shares how to walk, is the true test of Facebook. "How to proceed in the price of about $ 30, depending on whether there is a real entity funds to buy." Ming, Yan said, "investigated the fundamental reason is that Facebook itself, the growth is expected to be convincing."
Facebook, the historical price-earnings ratio of over 100 in accordance with the prices of $ 38,. Under $ 30, then about 82. This data in the Google IPO is 74.6.

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